A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
